
“A housing market crash happens when home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.”With that definition in mind, here are two reasons why this just isn’t on the horizon.
1. Demand for Homes Is Higher than Supply
One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed back in 2008 was an oversupply of homes. Today, though, it’s a very different story. It’s a general rule of thumb that a market where supply and demand are balanced has a six-month supply of homes. A higher number means supply outpaces demand, and a lower number means demand outpaces supply. The graph below uses data from NAR to put today’s situation into context:
“We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”
2. Unemployment Is Still Low
When people are unemployed, they’re more likely to have trouble making their mortgage payments and may be forced to sell or face foreclosure. That was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the employment situation is much more stable (see graph below):
Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger than in 2008
While it’s understandable to be concerned when you hear talk of a recession and economic uncertainty, but know this: the housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008. According to Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company:“Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis.”Demand for homes still outpaces supply, and unemployment remains low. And these are two key factors that will help prevent the housing market from crashing any time soon.